Maybe, but his investment advice is spot on. Read his articles on how to build a low-cost ETF portfolio. Nobody expected the Bank of Canada to keep this thing goosed for so long. This bubble is entirely the result of extremely low interest rates coupled with government insurance.
Once the US starts raising rates, we're up the creek without a paddle. Here in Nova Scotia, prices are going down daily on viewpoint.
So really depends where you live. Garth has admitted many times that he was wrong about the timing and details of his crash predictions. He did not expect the low rate binge that we ended up seeing from - present.
He did not expect that people would continue to act in a way that he sees as illogical with regards to debt and housing or a variety of financial matters.
The fact that an overvalued housing market has gotten more overvalued over the last 7 years doesn't "prove him wrong", it just proves that the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
Even if these prices are a permanent thing and never crash, the implications for the average person with regards to finances and debt levels are still very real. Even if he's completely wrong and a crash never happens it's still totally legitimate for him to question the consequences of that to peoples personal finances. Million dollar houses being the new normal has tremendous implications for our countries long term financial demographics and that's something he discusses frequently.
Most of his posts have more to do with saving and investing and good financial habits than trumpeting a housing crash prediction. There is so much written on how to build a low cost ETF portfolio, any salesman could re-package and peddle it. I don't recall Mr. Turner ever providing a specific date when this would all come to fruition. So, how can he be wrong? I recall some people saying back in the DOW would break 20, too. It will, eventually. It's at 17, as I type this. Housing will crash.
Google's TOC's are very specific and the idiots haven't broken any of them. We believe Blogger increases the availability of information, encourages healthy debate, and makes possible new connections between people. We respect our users' ownership of and responsibility for the content they choose to share. It is our belief that censoring this content is contrary to a service that bases itself on freedom of expression.
I would imagine he has no interest in drawing attention to this site. I agree, you have put together excellent information. Thank you. This site is even more pathetic than the angry realtors who post on Garth's blog.
Congrats on reaching a whole new low! Let me guess: you guys are realtors with extra time on their hands due to the very same real estate correction Garth has predicted all along?
Thought so. Did you bother to run through his track record? If you are going to be putting yourself out their you should be able to stand behind your record. Canadian Peso, anyone? Oh, and by the way, I agree that we may be facing a terrible housing correction which will be pretty nasty for a lot of Canadians.
I meant there, not their. Don't like typos Pretty sophisticated analysis for a bunch of realtors. If you search for Garth Turner Greater fool, this blog is 2 in the list. Great site! Came here because I'm sick of hearing about Garth predicting the housing crash for the past 5 years.. Great to know he's as much of an idiot with predicting financial markets as well. The Greater Fool??
Anyone who follows a false prophet.. Hey guys. Good information here. Check this out. Caught in a lie. Has he just ignored this site? No nastygram to the idiots? Keep up the great work. Its remarkable that people listen to this serial failure posing as a prophet. For a laugh maybe you could investigate what happened to his survivalist business "xurbia"?
Now the site just sells his books of misdirection. Oh, Haiii! GOOD THING I get out of this story-ville blog and bought a bank sale house back in , fix up20k, turn around and sell it and made a grand in hand just over a year, oh yeah! I followed the fool for a few months trusting a money freak thinking he's outsmart actually a dump psychopath - I know only later. Hate that guy and Garth with passion! Don't forget sales statistics that get magically massaged upwards each year.
Only a real estate agent on the Titanic would tell you it's a lovely day to go sailing while the water was rising around your ankles. All projections in economics assume "ceteris paribus" it's a Latin phrase meaning "all other things being equal or held constant". Since few things are constant, it takes extraordinary luck to time the market. If you're smart, you get out before it peaks.
If you're lucky, you get as it peaks. If you're like most players, you panic on the free fall down and settle for a lot less than if you had chosen 1. The drop in the price of oil and the Canadian dollar will no doubt have interesting and sometimes unpredictable effects on the Canadian housing market in the future. Garth predicts a slow steady decline. Let's all hope he's right. A sudden drop off like the USA in would be devastating to the debt soaked population of Canada. Sell at The price then skyrocketts to , followed by a crash all the way back down to 40 bucks.
Was I wrong to sell at ? Garth got that part wrong. But so did many. Otherwise, many Canadians would have gotten smoked back then as he predicted. Never bet against the US dollar. Just ask the gold bugs.
I used to be one BTW, when I was green. Lol Appraiser. Hey, I have a house from before then, plus detached rental property. Worked at a credit rating agency then and am amply aware of the benefit we all got.
Appears that there is a strong presence of Garth Turner fans amongst your readers! Predicting a boom or bust over an undefined time period is always going to prove to be both right and wrong. That guy is a sensationalist and not unlike Trump has built a following by making big, bold and loud claims. It has worker very well for him both financially and in becoming recognized.
The primary reason why the value of your asset increased significantly had less to do with location, etc. In comparison take a look at equity markets to see the impact of monetary policy — same deal! This is a good point … the EZ money policies designed to provide liquidity and prevent a freeze of capital markets have goosed RE and Equity values alike. The basic point Garth raised, about over extending one self still applies.
Interest rates, while still low, are going to rise. And can sleep at night, because any scenario short of the collapse of Western civilization will probably work out OK for them. I think the biggest thing people hate about Garth is that he will never admit that he is wrong and by not doing so he is a liar. Also he likes to try and belittle people. Miss your posts there Ralph. Either about his posts or about him.
Much of the proof was info provided by his own blog. Hey I get it, when you have a strong opinion you might get some calls wrong. Admit it and move on. The guy says what he thinks will make him the most money, which is not what you want in a financial advisor.
If you have to read between the lines of what a financial guru is saying, then he is doing his job very poorly and should not be trusted with money! I will put some real estate agents in that group and some financial advisors, we should not be sticking up for either.
He provides conservative investing and financial advice on a free blog. He thinks real estate is a good investment, in some places at some times for some people, but that others are overleveraged and underdiversified in places that are overvalued. On that, he and I agree. As an outside observer, the RE bulls are just as obnoxious as the bears. I really wish there was a more balanced and fair look at the market available somewhere.
GT has always been a moron. He cares not for your wallet, but for his, as would any good capitalist. Anyone in the know should find out how much that is, for all of us. I missed this conversation over the weekend. Kudos to David for recognizing that GT was correct in some aspects. When he was more in the mainstream media many years ago I used to think that some of his ideas made a lot of sense.
Where he runs into trouble with me is each time his predictions turn out to be wrong, he neatly sidesteps them and moves on without acknowledging that he guessed wrong. Instead, pretending like its always going to plan. Some may be more informed than others but ultimately its just a guess and should be treated as such.
Buyer beware. Bonus points if you also realize you are saving taxes on the loss each month! Well, now look at the market.
Rents have gone up significantly and prices have too , mortgage rates are lower than ever, and bidding wars on rentals are happening every day.
Just give it time. There is no way that there are anything close to 15, assignment sales in Toronto each year. The best way to think illustrate the absurdity of this figure is this: in there will be about 15, new condo completions to hit the market. Are we supposed to believe that every single one of them will sell as an assignment right before closing?
If there were really 15, condo assignment sales every year in Toronto, who is selling all these assignments? If we take the figure of 15, new condo completions per year in Toronto then that means around assignments per year maximum. If you want to learn more information like this to help you make an informed decision when you are buying a condo in Toronto, please subscribe.
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